Logic 201 - THE LOGIC OF PROBABILITY
Spring
2015
01
4.00
Samuel Ruhmkorff
MW 01:10-02:30
Smith College
41007-S15
MCCONN 403
sruhmkorff@smith.edu
Probabilistic reasoning is a central component of scientific method and underlies most of our everyday judgments and decisions about the world. Yet laypeople frequently commit the most basic probabilistic fallacies, experts do not agree about what probability is and everyone makes bad decisions on some occasions. In this course, we survey fundamental concepts of probability; learn how probability is used to model induction and rational decision making; examine competing interpretations of probability; and study paradoxes, puzzles, fallacies and controversial cases of decision making and probabilistic inference. Examples relate to medicine, gambling, risk assessment and politics. Prerequisite: one course in logic.(E)