Weighing the Evidence
What are the likely effects of proposed social policies? Should an environmental pollutant be considered a health risk? How can one manage to sensibly synthesize multiple strands of evidence of criminal wrongdoing, discrimination, or liability to reach a sound judgment? Human intuition is easily led astray when tasked with judging probabilistic and causal arguments at the heart of these and other such questions. In some cases, mental training may help us better avoid the pitfalls to careful reasoning under uncertainty.