This class will examine fundamental concepts in statistics. Topics will include probability models, descriptive statistics, parameter estimation, hypothesis tests, and regression. Computational tools will be used to explore probability models and their relation to statistical inference. Assignments will consist of weekly problem sets where we will review major concepts and analyze real and simulated data sets.

This class will discuss the successes and failures of different fields to make accurate predictions. Areas we will cover include: politics, weather forecasting, economics, sports, seismology, games, and climate science. We will use Nate Silver's book 'The signal and the noise' along with primary research and news articles. Assignments will include writing short weekly summaries on current topics in prediction, giving in class presentations, and completing a final project.